The housing market looks set to remain relatively static throughout the opening months of 2025, following yet another flat quarter.

The latest QV House Price Index shows residential property values edged upward by an average of just 0.1% nationally in the December quarter, which was not enough to finish the year in the black.

The average home is now worth $902,414, which is 0.3% less than at the start of 2024 and 15.2% below the market’s peak just over three years ago.

Now that flattening trend looks set to continue throughout the early part of 2025, with little evidence to suggest that property values are set to grow substantially this summer, according to QV operations manager James Wilson.

Tauranga experienced small home value reductions in seven out of the past 12 months but finished 2024 with consecutive months of modest growth.

As a result, the city recorded a small amount of home value growth this quarter, but it wasn’t enough to finish the year in the black.

The city’s average home is now worth $1,018,936; up 1.4% for the quarter, but down 1.6% annually.

The latest QV house value map. Photo / supplied

“It’s been ‘steady as she goes’ throughout much of last year, and it looks like it’s going to stay that way for a while yet,” Wilson said.

“It’s a new year, but the same restraining factors are still very much at play – including sustained weakness in the labour market, a high cost of living, credit constraints, and a surplus of properties for sale on the market today.

“The marked uplift in demand for housing that has come as a direct result of falling interest rates hasn’t yet converted into any significant price pressure, so we’re only seeing very small pockets of growth.

“However, we also haven’t seen quite so many reductions this quarter in particular, which indicates that we’re now at or very close to equilibrium in the market.”

Indeed, just three of the main urban areas we monitor experienced relatively modest reductions in average home value last quarter — Rotorua (-2.3%), Marlborough (-0.7%) and Queenstown (-1.4%).

Average home values increased modestly everywhere else, including in Auckland (1.3%), Wellington (0.4%), and Christchurch (1.1%).

That means seven of New Zealand Aotearoa’s main urban centres will now start 2025 with their average home values sitting marginally higher than at the start of the year prior.

They are Hamilton (0.6%), New Plymouth (2%), Nelson (0.6%), Christchurch (1.8%), Queenstown (2.5%), Dunedin (2.9%), and Invercargill (3.9%).

“In the longer term, I expect we will see more growth this year than last, but with rising unemployment and such a high level of economic uncertainty, there are currently no indications that house prices are suddenly going to go from flat to flat-out in the immediate future,” said Wilson.

“We can expect to see more investors return to the market throughout 2025, especially if interest rates drop markedly further.

“That will put a bit of price pressure on first-home buyers, who have picked up a larger share of the market in recent times.

“But it looks as though the economy is still in a dark place right now, and debt-to-income ratios should still keep a lid on things in the year ahead.”