Mainly fine winter days lie ahead for the beginning of this school holiday week in the Bay of Plenty, with rain expected from Thursday through to the weekend.

On Tuesday a large ridge of high pressure will cover most of the country, MetService said. Showery westerlies will continue in the far south, while a northeasterly flow will develop over northern New Zealand.

This large ridge of high pressure is expected to cover central and southern New Zealand on Wednesday, while a front is set to approach Northland bringing rain and strengthening northeast winds.

“There is low confidence northeast winds will rise to severe gale in exposed parts of the Far North late on Wednesday,” MetService said.

Rain coming on Thursday

On Thursday, the front is expected to move south-eastwards onto the North Island and northern South Island, bringing rain and strong northeast winds to many regions.

“For Northland, Auckland, Great Barrier Island, Coromandel Peninsula, Bay of Plenty, and the ranges of Gisborne/Tairāwhiti and Wairoa District, there is moderate confidence rainfall amounts will reach warning criteria on Thursday, and low confidence northeast winds will reach severe gale for a time in exposed places,” MetService said.

“For Waikato, Waitomo, Taranaki, Taumarunui, Taupō, and Taihape, there is mostly low confidence that warnable amounts of rain will fall, and low confidence northeast winds will reach severe gale for a time in exposed places. However, for Taranaki Maunga there is moderate confidence a heavy rain warning will need to be issued.”

MetService said for northwest Tasman, there is moderate confidence rainfall amounts will reach warning criteria, while the confidence is low for the remainder of Nelson/Tasman plus northern Marlborough, as drawn on the chart.

Friday, July 4

The front is forecast to continue moving south-eastwards on Friday and should lie to the east of the country by the end of the day. Meanwhile, a deep low over the Tasman Sea should be approaching the North Island.

For Bay of Plenty east of Whakatāne and the ranges of Gisborne/Tairāwhiti, there is moderate confidence rainfall amounts will reach warning criteria, and low confidence northerly winds will reach severe gale in exposed places for a time.

In addition, there is low confidence heavy rain will continue about the remainder of Bay of Plenty, Coromandel Peninsula, Great Barrier Island, Taranaki Maunga, Nelson/Tasman, and northern Marlborough.