As more rain bears down on the Bay of Plenty, authorities are warning of a wetter and warmer than average second half of 2025.

An orange heavy rain warning is in place for the region from 10am tomorrow, with areas west of Whakatāne expected to get up to 120mm of rain.

The MetService warning is in force until 3am Friday.

Areas east of Whakatāne could expect up to 130mm between 12pm Thursday and 10am Friday, with 150 to 200mm in some areas.

MetService warned of rapidly rising streams and rivers, surface flooding, slips and poor driving conditions, and advised people to clear their gutters before the rain hit.

Strong wind and heavy rain watches were also in place for Auckland, Northland and Coromandel tomorrow.

Earth Sciences New Zealand meteorologist Chris Brandolino said an atmospheric river that stretched up to sub-tropical New Caledonia would sweep over much of the North Island and the top of the South Island in the coming days.

People may want to do outdoor activities with their children during the school holidays, but “I would avoid that for much of the country, upper South Island, much of the North Island”, Brandolino said.

“I would avoid Thursday certainly, I would avoid Friday and I might even avoid Saturday.”

It comes as Earth Sciences New Zealand’s (formerly Niwa) Seasonal Climate Outlook report predicts a wet and warm start for the second half of the year across New Zealand.

For Bay of Plenty, Northland, Auckland and Waikato, temperatures were very likely to be above average (60% chance) and rainfall totals above normal (45% chance) from July to September.

Brandolino said tropical weather patterns were expected to influence New Zealand over the quarter leading to “potentially significant rainfall and increased risk for flooding, particularly in already-saturated areas”.

“Rainfall is expected to be above normal in the north of both islands, and near normal or above normal elsewhere, except for the West Coast of the South Island, where drier than usual conditions are possible.

Rainfall is expected to be above normal in the north of both islands, and near normal or above normal elsewhere. Photo / Earth Sciences New Zealand

“Seasonal air temperatures are expected to be above average across all regions of New Zealand for the three-month period,” Brandolino said.

While cold snaps and frost would occur, they were expected to be less frequent than usual.