Households are urged to adjust their personal finances as mortgage interest rates are set to double.
CoreLogic NZ's latest property market and economic update confirms sales activity continued to drop through the second half of 2021 and became 'genuinely weak' as the trend extended into the first quarter of the year.
Higher interest rates, lower sales volumes, and flatter house prices are forecast for the rest of the year.
The common drivers of the widespread post-Covid upswing in property values, including low mortgage rates and tight supply, were no longer in play, as the total number of listings available were up due to a slowdown in sales activity.
First quarter property sales volumes are the weakest in about a decade.
"It's still going to be harder to get a new mortgage this year than it has been for some time, and there's also a large refinancing wave to come through too, with about 50 per cent of existing loans fixed but due to roll over this year," says CoreLogic chief property economist Kelvin Davidson.
"These borrowers will generally be facing a much higher repayment schedule when they refinance."
Davidson says rising debt levels were also a concern and many households would be forced to adjust their finances fairly quickly, following the doubling of mortgage rates and the country's high household debt to income ratio.
"Higher mortgage rates and reduced credit availability is having a significant impact on sales.
"We expect property market activity will continue to be subdued, with sales volumes perhaps declining by as much as 10 per cent this year, and another 5 percent or so in 2023."
He characterises the market as slowing rather than a serious downturn.
"If unemployment stays low, we don't anticipate significant or widespread falls in property values."
Davidson says there will be some regional differences with some parts of the country more vulnerable to a fall in values than others.
"There are many factors that will influence each region over the coming year or so. But parts of Canterbury certainly have affordability on their side, so could see further, albeit modest, growth.
"By contrast, many smaller markets in the central and lower North Island already look stretched, so could be poised to underperform."
1 comment
Just maybe........
Posted on 27-04-2022 08:38 | By groutby
.....if the CCCF act is revisited and restrictions eased a little, and with the Reserve Bank indicating they may well not be as 'aggressive' with interest rates as originally thought, just maybe we can achieve a measured recovery from this difficult financial time rather than sending people to the wall..... ....writers with intent to remain negative about the immediate future seem to capture the headlines.......
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