MetService is forecasting an intense front sweeping northeast over the South Island and onto the lower North Island on Monday. At the same time a slow moving front over the North Island intensifies.

An active trough of low pressure moves eastwards across New Zealand during Monday.

This trough is expected to bring a period of heavy rain and strong to gale northwesterlies to western and northern parts of both islands, followed by heavy showers and thunderstorms across southern and central New Zealand in a cold west to southwest flow.

Heavy Rain Watches are now in force for parts of Fiordland, Westland, and Otago near the Alps, and Strong Wind Watches are in force from Fiordland to the Canterbury High Country.

This is an unseasonably cold outbreak, and snow may settle to around 1000 metres over Fiordland and the ranges of Otago during Monday, and in addition large southwest swells are expected over the west and south coasts of the South Island from later Monday.

People are advised to keep up to date with the latest forecasts, as these areas may be updated, and further Watches or Warnings are likely to issued for regions further north over the coming days.

There is a high confidence that warning amounts of rain will accumulate in the north of Fiordland, the Westland District and the headwaters of the Otago and Canterbury lakes and rivers.

There is a moderate confidence that warning amounts of rain will accumulate for a broader area over the South Island including the remainder of Fiordland, the Grey District, Buller and the south of Nelson.

There is a moderate confidence that warning amounts of rain will accumulate over much of the central North Island, the Tararua Range and the eastern ranges of the Bay of Plenty.

There is a high confidence that severe northwesterly gales will affect Fiordland, inland Southland, Central Otago, the Southern Lakes and the Canterbury high country.

There is a moderate confidence that northwesterly gales will become severe over the the remainder of the South Island apart from coastal Westland, Buller and Nelson.

There is a high confidence that severe northwesterly gales will affect Wellington, Wairarapa and Hawke's Bay south of Napier, but a moderate confidence in severe northwesterly gales from Waitomo to the eastern ranges of the Bay of Plenty and inland Gisborne through the central North Island high country to Kapiti.

There is a low confidence in severe northwesterly gales over the remainder of the North Island. Note that the gales over the South Island are likely to ease Monday morning but persist through much of the day over the North Island.

Tuesday, March 5 2024
There is a moderate confidence that severe northwesterly gales will affect Wellington, Wairarapa and Hawke's Bay south of Hastings.

These gales are expected to ease Tuesday afternoon.

There is a moderate confidence in severe southwesterly gales for Stewart Island, coastal Southland, Clutha and Dunedin.

Wednesday, March 6 2024
A ridge of high pressure brings settled weather to much of the country on Wednesday.

Thursday, March 7 2024
A weakening front is expected to affect Fiordland and there is a low confidence that warning amounts of rain will accumulate there.