The second week of the school holidays may have more rain and wind around the country, according to the weather experts.

On Tuesday, October 8, a strong west to northwest flow over New Zealand should turn southwest over the South Island during the day, as an active front moves northwards, said a MetService spokesperson.

“There is high confidence that rainfall accumulations may approach warning criteria over the ranges of Westland and the headwaters of the Otago and Canterbury lakes and rivers, and low confidence for parts of Fiordland, and later in the day over Grey District and Buller.

“There is high confidence that northwest gales will become severe over the Canterbury High Country, and moderate confidence over Marlborough, Wellington, Wairarapa, the Tararua District and Central Hawke’s Bay.

“There is also low confidence that westerlies about Stewart Island and the Fiordland, Southland and Clutha coast could become severe.”

On Wednesday, a weakening front is expected to cross the North Island during the day, followed by southwesterlies.

“There is low confidence that northwest gales could still be severe during the morning from Canterbury High Country to Tararua District,” said a MetService spokesperson.

“Later in the day, there is also low confidence that west to southwest winds could become severe from southern Fiordland to coastal Dunedin, including Stewart Island.”

A ridge of high pressure bringing mostly settled conditions to the country is forecast for Thursday. MetService said there is minimal risk of severe weather associated with it.

On Friday, October 11, a low is expected to develop over the North Island, forcing a moist easterly flow.

“This is likely to bring rain to eastern parts, but at this stage significant accumulations look unlikely. There is minimal risk of severe weather,” said a MetService spokesperson.